I came upon this post (http://64lawsofsuccess.com/law-5-know-dont-guess/) the other day, and it got me thinking:
“This is a common Action done incorrectly by millions of people, that if corrected, would immensely benefit not only their personal lives but also society. People Guess dozens of times a day, and at first thought, this does make sense. After all, there is a cost to acquiring knowledge, and in many daily-life situations, Guessing is good enough because the stakes are so low that it’s OK if you get it wrong. But the best performers – the millionaire businessmen, the chess grandmasters, the champion athletes, even the top poker players – Know, rather than Guess.”
Maybe guessing is good enough for you. Sometimes. Maybe most of the time. Not for me… I’d rather know something than guess at it. My personal credibility is at stake.
Now, I’m not the kind of person that needs to always be correct. Lord knows I have my fair share of times when I’m not… And I don’t usually correct those around me, either (hoping my family agrees!) But I’d rather people know me for being a straight shooter. Misleading others by guessing at an answer is not a heinous act. I’d rather tell you I don’t know for sure, and will find out for you. To me this is far better than making up an answer or making an incorrect, but well-intended educated GUESS.
I think this started when I worked at an automobile racetrack. In the media center, reporters have ‘rabbit ears,’ trying to pick up any information they can, even if “accidentally” overhear a private conversation. So, I learned early on not to guess, or opine, or make up information. I had a logo on my shirt, and when I spoke, people listened. In that environment, it was extremely important that you say what you KNOW, not what you THINK might be true. And worst of all, don’t GUESS.
This also applies to my professional career, where I work on websites and infrastructure that need to sustain high-volume traffic. The people who depend on me and my team to provide data and interpretive knowledge aren’t well served if I just GUESS the system will stay up and provide a reasonable response time when 60,000 people hit Enter all at the same time. They want to KNOW their system will not only survive, but also perform well. I would not be nearly as successful in my professional if I just made a GUESS. In fact, I’d probably not be in the same career.
Guessing does suck. Especially when you have little choice but to do it. There are times when there simply isn’t an authority to ask or no data to analyze. You have to make the educated GUESS. And you know there’s some level of risk that you are wrong.
About that educated GUESS… Will it be a good enough guess to get you through? Was it your best effort to obtain the data or find an authority? What are the consequences of being wrong?
When it matters… really matters… don’t guess. Know. Guessing sucks. As for me, I’d rather know, if at all possible.